After more than two decades advising buyers and sellers in Boulder, one thing has remained consistent: national housing trends matter, but how they express themselves locally matters far more.
Compass Intelligence’s 2026 National Market Outlook highlights a significant shift underway in the U.S. housing market, with direct implications for Boulder’s luxury real estate landscape. The big takeaway is not a boom or a bust, but a gradual rebalancing that creates opportunity for informed buyers and sellers.
As Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen puts it:
“The market is shifting toward a new era where incomes rise faster than home prices and the deep freeze of the last few years begins to thaw.”
Here’s what that shift means when viewed through the lens of Boulder’s luxury market.
A Shift Toward Affordability, Even at the High End
For the first time in several years, incomes are expected to outpace home price growth in 2026, improving overall affordability nationally. While Boulder remains one of the most supply-constrained markets in the country, this trend matters.
In Boulder’s luxury segment, affordability is less about monthly payments and more about confidence and timing. When buyers feel conditions are stabilizing rather than deteriorating, decision-making accelerates. That psychological shift alone can unlock pent-up demand.
Inventory Is Expected to Grow, But Selectively
Compass Intelligence projects that the national housing inventory could increase by roughly 10%, giving buyers more choice than they’ve had in recent years.
In Boulder, inventory growth will likely be uneven. Well-located, architecturally significant homes will remain scarce, while secondary properties may take longer to trade. For sellers, this reinforces the importance of pricing, presentation, and positioning. For buyers, it creates leverage that hasn’t existed since before the pandemic.
The “Great Stay” Is Beginning to Thaw
One of the most important dynamics highlighted in the 2026 outlook is the fading of mortgage rate lock-in. Compass estimates that roughly 150,000 homeowners who pulled listings in 2025 may re-enter the market as conditions improve.
This matters in Boulder, where many homeowners postponed moves not because they wanted to stay put, but because moving felt financially irrational. As that friction eases, we expect more discretionary sellers to test the market, particularly in the luxury segment, where lifestyle changes often drive decisions.
Mortgage Rates: Stability Creates Momentum
Compass Intelligence forecasts mortgage rates trading in a range of roughly 5.9%–6.9% in 2026, with an average around 6.4%.
For Boulder’s luxury market, rate stability matters more than rate drops. Predictability enables buyers to plan, sellers to price with confidence, and transactions to proceed without hesitation. Many of my clients are more rate-sensitive than volatility-averse.
Home Prices: Modest Growth, Strong Fundamentals
Nationally, home prices are expected to rise modestly, approximately 0.5%, while incomes grow faster. Boulder’s long-term fundamentals remain exceptionally strong: limited land, a robust job base, world-class lifestyle amenities, and global demand.
Rather than dramatic appreciation, the likely story in 2026 is value preservation with selective upside, especially for properties that offer location, privacy, and architectural quality.
What This Means for Boulder Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, 2026 may represent one of the most balanced entry points Boulder has seen in years, with more inventory, less competition, and greater negotiating power.
For sellers, the market rewards strategy. Homes that are thoughtfully prepared and positioned will still command attention, while aspirational pricing without differentiation will struggle to command attention.
After guiding clients through multiple cycles, my perspective is simple: moments of transition often present the best opportunities.
A Deeper Look at the Data
Compass Intelligence’s full 2026 National Market Outlook explores these trends in far greater detail, including economic indicators, demographic shifts, and regional nuance.
If you’d like to dive deeper into the data, you can explore the full Compass report here:
And if you’re considering buying or selling in Boulder and want to understand how these national signals translate locally, I’m always happy to share a tailored perspective based on your goals and timeline.
Frequently Asked Questions: 2026 Housing Market Outlook in Boulder
What does the 2026 housing market outlook mean for Boulder real estate?
The 2026 outlook suggests a gradual shift toward balance, with improving affordability, more inventory, and stabilizing mortgage rates. In Boulder, these trends are likely to translate into more thoughtful buyer activity rather than dramatic price swings, especially in the luxury segment.
Is 2026 a good time to buy a luxury home in Boulder?
For many buyers, yes. With inventory expected to increase and competition easing compared to recent years, 2026 may offer better selection and negotiating power, particularly for buyers focused on long-term value rather than short-term appreciation.
Should I consider selling my home in Boulder in 2026?
Sellers who approach the market strategically may find 2026 favorable. As mortgage rate lock-in fades and more buyers re-enter the market, well-positioned homes, especially those with strong location and design appeal, are likely to attract serious interest.
Will home prices drop in Boulder in 2026?
Current forecasts do not point to a broad price decline. Nationally, prices are expected to rise modestly, and Boulder’s limited supply and strong demand fundamentals continue to support long-term value, particularly in established luxury neighborhoods.
How will mortgage rates affect the Boulder luxury market in 2026?
Mortgage rates are expected to stabilize in the mid-6% range. For luxury buyers in Boulder, stability matters more than sharp rate drops. Predictable financing conditions help buyers and sellers make confident decisions.
What is the “Great Stay” and why does it matter for Boulder homeowners?
The “Great Stay” refers to homeowners delaying moves due to low locked-in mortgage rates. As that effect fades, more Boulder homeowners may list their properties, increasing inventory and creating new opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
How is Boulder different from the national housing market?
While national trends provide context, Boulder’s real estate market is shaped by limited land, a strong local economy, lifestyle-driven demand, and global interest. These factors often insulate Boulder from volatility seen in other markets.
How should buyers and sellers use national market data when making decisions?
National data is most valuable when interpreted locally. Understanding how broader trends intersect with Boulder’s unique supply, demand, and buyer profile is key to making informed decisions.
Where can I read the full Compass 2026 Market Outlook?
You can explore the complete Compass Intelligence 2026 National Market Outlook, including detailed data and projections, here:
https://www.compass.com/research/market-outlook/agents/p-brown/